And now, the news
May. 2nd, 2011 08:50 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
teddywolfBy now, I'm sure most of you have probably heard that Osama bin Laden is dead. I was online when President Obama made his speech, tuned in to c-span.org, and heard his speech.
Some parts of the speech definitely had a USA political bent to them. He was brief, mostly to the point, and didn't land on an aircraft carrier to do it. I am sure we will hear conspiracy theories about it not being him until they publish photos of a body. I am also sure the GOP will decry President Obama "politicizing" this, in the highly-political way they decry any of President Obama's non-partisan popular actions. It's a knee-jerk reaction for them but it will bite them back this time, as getting rid of Osama bin Laden has been a public GOP talking point for a decade. They won't lose everybody; they never do. But, I think they will lose at least 1-2 points worth of support permanently unless they nip it in the bud by afternoon today. Since I doubt they'll do this, highly effective though they are at lock-step most of the time, they can watch their base erode over the next couple of weeks.
Back to the rest of the world, which should not be forgotten.
I hold no affection for Osama bin Laden. I would have preferred to see him brought in alive and put before a trial court for various misdeeds, but I am enough of a realist to know that the powers that be in the US would find that less emotionally appealing and less decisive. It might not have been possible, either.
The important thing to do at this point is to ask, what happens now? Osama bin Laden helped found al Qaeda, with some help from the US during the 1980s occupation of Afghanistan by the now-defunct USSR. He provided the organization with a great deal of money, yes, and directed certain activities, but most importantly he also provided their moral and spiritual compass. The money combined with the moral authority made for a double whammy that made al Qaeda effective where other non-state actors were not. According to one of my political science professors, bin Laden was able to issue fatwas with some authority, and this would be enough to sway a small but big-enough number of Muslims into considering some of the ultimate sins as holy and necessary work. Don't scoff; we've had people commit murder in the US using similar reasoning, like the death of Dr. George Tiller.
These factors put him in the driver's seat, as it were. For all of the Western press talk about various high-up al Qaeda operatives who might run special operations or run day-to-day operations, I have not heard about anybody else with similar spiritual authority in the group. With spiritual authority, al Qaeda is for its members a group engaging in desperate and murderous acts with an eye toward making the world a better place by their own philosophy. Without spiritual authority, they are just another group of murderous criminals. The money will determine if they keep in relatively high profile, but the spiritual leadership is what will make or break al Qaeda as it stands now.
The big questions regarding al Qaeda without bin Laden are, do they still have access to funding? Do they have a person who might step into the spiritual leadership role? We already know they have no love for the USA, Europe and many Muslim regimes and would like to see such toppled.
Is there a chance that al Qaeda will step back now and renounce terrorism? Well... not a chance. If they lose both access to funding and do not have a clear spiritual leader, however, al Qaeda will likely sink into obscurity or be killed off within about 5-10 years or just change into a Muslim mafia - this is not the case if they change either of those conditions, but is probable should that be the status quo. If they have money but no spiritual leader, they may devolve to such a mafia before they find a leader and become mostly ineffective as a terrorist organization. If they have a spiritual leader but no money, they will probably try to find a way to get money and get back on their feet. The big thing is, if they have a spiritual leader I suspect they will organize a counterstrike fairly quickly, partly for revenge, partly to show that they are still effective. They might anyways. You don't strike fear into the hearts of people by standing back, and fear is stock-in-trade for terrorists and certain other kinds of criminals.
I do not mourn for Osama bin Laden. I am no more than quietly satisfied that he is gone, insofar he probably would have killed me as soon as looked at me. No, the people I mourn for are those he killed. Rejoicing in his death will not bring them back.
Some parts of the speech definitely had a USA political bent to them. He was brief, mostly to the point, and didn't land on an aircraft carrier to do it. I am sure we will hear conspiracy theories about it not being him until they publish photos of a body. I am also sure the GOP will decry President Obama "politicizing" this, in the highly-political way they decry any of President Obama's non-partisan popular actions. It's a knee-jerk reaction for them but it will bite them back this time, as getting rid of Osama bin Laden has been a public GOP talking point for a decade. They won't lose everybody; they never do. But, I think they will lose at least 1-2 points worth of support permanently unless they nip it in the bud by afternoon today. Since I doubt they'll do this, highly effective though they are at lock-step most of the time, they can watch their base erode over the next couple of weeks.
Back to the rest of the world, which should not be forgotten.
I hold no affection for Osama bin Laden. I would have preferred to see him brought in alive and put before a trial court for various misdeeds, but I am enough of a realist to know that the powers that be in the US would find that less emotionally appealing and less decisive. It might not have been possible, either.
The important thing to do at this point is to ask, what happens now? Osama bin Laden helped found al Qaeda, with some help from the US during the 1980s occupation of Afghanistan by the now-defunct USSR. He provided the organization with a great deal of money, yes, and directed certain activities, but most importantly he also provided their moral and spiritual compass. The money combined with the moral authority made for a double whammy that made al Qaeda effective where other non-state actors were not. According to one of my political science professors, bin Laden was able to issue fatwas with some authority, and this would be enough to sway a small but big-enough number of Muslims into considering some of the ultimate sins as holy and necessary work. Don't scoff; we've had people commit murder in the US using similar reasoning, like the death of Dr. George Tiller.
These factors put him in the driver's seat, as it were. For all of the Western press talk about various high-up al Qaeda operatives who might run special operations or run day-to-day operations, I have not heard about anybody else with similar spiritual authority in the group. With spiritual authority, al Qaeda is for its members a group engaging in desperate and murderous acts with an eye toward making the world a better place by their own philosophy. Without spiritual authority, they are just another group of murderous criminals. The money will determine if they keep in relatively high profile, but the spiritual leadership is what will make or break al Qaeda as it stands now.
The big questions regarding al Qaeda without bin Laden are, do they still have access to funding? Do they have a person who might step into the spiritual leadership role? We already know they have no love for the USA, Europe and many Muslim regimes and would like to see such toppled.
Is there a chance that al Qaeda will step back now and renounce terrorism? Well... not a chance. If they lose both access to funding and do not have a clear spiritual leader, however, al Qaeda will likely sink into obscurity or be killed off within about 5-10 years or just change into a Muslim mafia - this is not the case if they change either of those conditions, but is probable should that be the status quo. If they have money but no spiritual leader, they may devolve to such a mafia before they find a leader and become mostly ineffective as a terrorist organization. If they have a spiritual leader but no money, they will probably try to find a way to get money and get back on their feet. The big thing is, if they have a spiritual leader I suspect they will organize a counterstrike fairly quickly, partly for revenge, partly to show that they are still effective. They might anyways. You don't strike fear into the hearts of people by standing back, and fear is stock-in-trade for terrorists and certain other kinds of criminals.
I do not mourn for Osama bin Laden. I am no more than quietly satisfied that he is gone, insofar he probably would have killed me as soon as looked at me. No, the people I mourn for are those he killed. Rejoicing in his death will not bring them back.
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no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 01:30 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 03:17 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 01:34 pm (UTC)Bin Laden's death will be great news to those who keep their heads firmly in the sand with respect to the above, and the rest of us will be better off if they go back to their TVs and their affluenza. But it won't be a long-term cure for anything.
no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 03:08 pm (UTC)Many conditions are ripe for Muslim terrorist organizations to continue with their activities, no argument. Al Qaeda had extra cachet because of the fatwas. We will see what happens.
no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 01:43 pm (UTC)another thought-provoking comment by video, created by Lawrence Bush for the Shalom Center, can be found at: http://www.youtube.com/user/editorjc?blend=7&ob=5
no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 03:21 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 02:28 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 03:15 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-03 07:16 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 02:38 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-02 03:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-05-04 03:53 am (UTC)As for the Republicans, well, Obama's chances of getting reelected just went up 10%. This isn't the sort of thing the GOP can snark about, given the value system of their core supporters.