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My Monday musings on The Incident
Bomb exploded outside the Lenscrafters on Boylston street. Shattered windows to that and the floor above but not the tempered glass door to the left nor the glass awning to the right. Shrapnel on second floor tiny window ledge to the right? Relatively small explosive force, no damage to masonry visible from 30? feet. (Musings on a picture taken outside the Lenscrafters on NYTimes.com)
One of two bombs that exploded seconds apart. (Three other bombs were later found and defused successfully--no prank, this is coordinated action)
Omnidirectional? Shaped charge? (Omnidirectional)
Type supposedly black powder and ball bearings. (Type actually pressure cooker filled with shrapnel, meant to maim more effectively and more potently than black powder and ball bearings)
Detonation method? Not vibration. Timed or trigger or timed fuse are most likely options. Ruling out proximity trigger unless proximity on one would trigger the other on short fuse. Timed: what kind of timer? No timer device listed as found (Egg timers now listed as used) but police forces are likely to keep information like that secret from the public (well, for a while). Timed fuse? Entire thing was suffused with black powder, could not be an easy fuse, not in Boston, too easily noticed if it burns, not much smoking along the marathon route, not much burning stuff in that area except for steakhouses, none that close by. Non-burning fuse? Trigger? Possible. Radio? Cell-phone? Not likely to be cell phone unless a burner phone or a stolen phone. No listed radio or phone devices found, but police play this close to the vest. Chemical trigger? Something where multiple bits are contained but can slowly work through their casing to mix and ignite? Tricky to manage the timing. Possible. If the police are honest when they say no trace of timer is found, likely to be chemical-timed. (Since police found timers and released that information publicly, it was timers)
Power level of explosions were lower-level Mythbusters. Kids, don't try this at home.
Why today? Crowds, lots of foot traffic. Maximum panic with relatively little loss of life. (But loads of injuries). Means far less potent explosives as something as big as McVeigh's could not be put together near the finish line. (Went for best chance of detonation rather than lower chance but killing more people. Best location for killing people would have been right next to the street at the edge of the sidewalk)
Why the finish line and not the starting line? More people at the starting line, so why the finish line area? Publicity and easier access. Not being done so much for the killing as for the attention and the easier getaway. Did they scout out all possible cameras to avoid before choosing where to drop the explosives? (Apparently they did not)
Or… simply could not get to Newton. Reliant on T transit for ease of travel, timer on explosives was set as soon as the thing was packed, and no way to get to Newton, drop the bombs, then return before the things went off, which would have triggered a T shut-down and cars being searched? Suggests somebody staying around Boston. Somebody who did not want to stick around after dropping the explosives. Trained operative? (uncertain at this time, but lots more people around Boston than around Newton, so easier to pull a fade into a crowd but at the risk of more likely to be seen on cameras)
Chemical trigger requires training and is not the easiest thing to do. (And wasn't done)
Why hit Boston? Why hit apolitical event like the marathon? It was not (strictly) for loss of life, or else there would have been bigger bomb blasts. Meant to panic and terrorize. Why Boston? why the marathon? Oldest marathon in US. Why Boston?
Businesses near the bombs are in upscale area. Possible reason for the location of bombs to secondarily hit an affluent area. More panic.
Boston is panicked. (Boston calmed down right quick and many people kept particularly level heads even in the midst of chaos. Greater Boston and much of the US panicked. Boston? Showed the kind of aplomb I'd normally expect from a city that deals with this regularly yet hasn't gone to paranoia)
Would any particularly important people be standing at the finish line? Was this known to be where such people would be? (It was known to be where TV cameras were, but it is questionable if they are currently on all day to watch later heats and stragglers cross the line)
Odd question: was proximity to hospitals considered to be a feature or a bug? Newton has fewer hospital facilities.
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One suspect is dead of gunshot wounds from exchanging fire with police; the other is at large. According to the news article, these two used a pressure cooker bomb during a car chase to attempt to disable police vehicles. Since the pressure cooker bomb was the IED used in Boston, this has not helped the remaining young man's chances in a court of law.
Right now I am more concerned for my cousin who's studying at MIT than I am for my immediate family. No signs of trouble in Medford, but an MIT campus policeman was shot multiple times and killed.
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